Insights & Research

Farmer Mac Loan Exchange Training

Dr. David M. Kohl — Wed, 15 Jul 2026 15:00:00 GMT

Webinar was held on July 15, 2026

Refinancing Dilemma: Lender & Borrower

Dr. David M. Kohl — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 14:00:00 GMT

In my travels this year across more than 25 states and through discussions with lenders and borrowers, a common question continues to surface: Is the current economic stress, particularly in the grain, rowcrop, and specialty-crop sectors, cyclical or structural? Some have suggested that certain segments of agriculture may be experiencing an economic paradigm shift like the one the U.S. automobile industry faced in the 1970s, when increased global competition from Japan and Europe altered the competitive landscape, created financial stress, and ultimately required bailouts and debt restructurings.

Reading the Field: An Agricultural Lending Assessment for 2026

Dr. David M. Kohl — Sun, 10 May 2026 17:45:00 GMT

Agricultural lenders and producers are operating in an increasingly complex economic environment, and the stakes continue to rise for understanding the indicators that shape lending decisions and farm profitability. My conversations during recent travels and at state agricultural banker and producer conferences provide a real-time snapshot of mounting pressure in the farm economy. Now, escalating tensions in the Middle East are adding another layer of uncertainty, with potential consequences for agriculture, consumers and businesses at home and around the world.

Southbound Surge: U.S. Corn Exports Gain Momentum in Mexico

Farmer Mac Communications — Mon, 20 Apr 2026 19:45:00 GMT

Export demand has emerged as a potential hero in the story of record 2025 U.S. corn production. Strong yields and rising global inventories pressured prices and weighed on producer margins last year, but abnormally strong export demand—especially from Mexico—has helped stabilize futures prices and lift basis levels across the Midwest. While support for corn producers' revenues is welcome, both producers and lenders should remain cautious, as the durability of export demand depends on numerous factors.

Domestic Drought and Global Production Tighten the Screws on U.S. Farm Margins

Farmer Mac Communications — Mon, 20 Apr 2026 18:45:00 GMT

The 2026 season begins with widespread U.S. drought, low soil moisture, and weak Western snowpack, threatening yields and raising irrigation and feed costs. Meanwhile, Brazil’s strong soybean and corn harvest is pressuring global prices, squeezing U.S. farm margins. Agricultural lenders face higher production and price risks, making borrower liquidity monitoring, stress testing, and proactive outreach critical as working capital and repayment capacity tighten.

Resilience Under Pressure: Farm Bankruptcy Levels and Implications for Ag Lenders

Farmer Mac Communications — Mon, 20 Apr 2026 18:30:00 GMT

Farm Chapter 12 bankruptcies rose to 315 filings in 2025 (up 46% from 2024), yet remain far below past peaks, signaling stress rather than collapse. Chapter 12 is a restructuring tool that often keeps farms operating, with many cases ending in discharge or settlement. Filings are concentrated in Midwest and Southeast row crop sectors amid falling receipts and elevated input costs. For lenders, proactive workouts, monitoring concentrations, and refreshed appraisals can protect portfolios and strengthen relationships.

Farm Income Holds Up in 2026, Thanks to Record Government Support

Farmer Mac Communications — Mon, 20 Apr 2026 18:00:00 GMT

The USDA projects 2026 net cash farm income (NCFI) rising about 3% to $158.5B, largely because direct federal payments are predicted to surge to a record $44.3B. With payments removed, farm cash income would fall below trend as crop and livestock receipts soften. The USDA also revised 2025 NCFI down sharply due to weaker prices, higher costs, and delayed aid. Rounding out the picture, production expenses remain near record highs, debt and interest costs climb, and bankruptcies rise, though strong farmland values support equity and collateral.

The Callable Curve: What’s Been Driving Ag Interest Rates

Farmer Mac Communications — Mon, 20 Apr 2026 14:45:00 GMT

Even as U.S. Treasury rates climbed from 2021 to 2023, many farm borrowers moved toward loans with shorter interest-rate reset periods. One underappreciated driver was a surge in callable-bond premiums that pushed up the true cost of long-term fixed-rate funding.

Farmland Price Index Update – Q4 2025

Farmer Mac Communications — Mon, 20 Apr 2026 14:15:00 GMT

The Farmland Price Index (FPI) continued to show farmland values plateauing nationally in Q4 2025. The FPI declined modestly at year's end relative to 2024, according to initial data, which is in line with the overall 2025 trend. However, solid farm incomes projected for 2026, largely due to elevated government payments, continue to provide support for farmland values overall.

Charting the Course: Agricultural Lending in 2026

Dr. David M. Kohl — Tue, 10 Mar 2026 16:00:00 GMT

In charting the course for 2026, recent conversations with agricultural lenders, risk management professionals, and, of course, agricultural producers frame the discussion. This article examines the most pressing concerns, challenges, and opportunities across agriculture.